不同发展模式下资源环境承载力评价——以海南省为例     

牛方曲  杨欣雨  孙东琪 《热带地理》2020,40(6):1109-1116

文章关注于产业、人口与资源环境要素的作用关系，建构了资源环境承载力综合评价框架，并以海南省为案例区开展应用研究。该框架首先对区域产业重要性进行评价并分级，为产业结构调整提供依据；其次解析了区域产业、人口资源消耗与污染排放强度，最后，基于产业评价结果设定不同的产业结构调整情景，结合产业和人口的资源消耗与污染排放强度评价不同产业结构下的资源环境承载力，即产业和人口的规模上限。结果表明：2016年海南省的经济规模并未超载，产业有进一步发展空间。其中土地资源成为海南省发展的首要限制因素，其次是水环境；海南经济效益较高的支柱产业和基础性产业多为高耗水、高污染的产业，亟需加强水资源的集约利用，并降低污染排放强度。为提升经济发展规模上限，需要培育低能耗、低排放的产业。文章建构的资源环境承载力评价方法将产业、人口与资源环境相联系，其评价结果政策意义更为明确，可为优化产业结构调整、控制产业及人口发展规模提供决策参考。  相似文献   

南极半岛邻近海域夏季POC分布特征及其影响因素          下载免费PDF全文

张一成  韩正兵  杨洋  潘建明  张海峰  李栋  赵军  朱秋红  范高晶  张海生 《极地研究》2020,32(1):47-59

海水中的颗粒有机碳(POC)与生物的生命过程、初级生产力关系密切,是海洋食物链中重要的物质基础和能量来源,因此POC的分布特征可以有效反映其生物地球化学环境。利用中国第33次南极考察期间(2016年12月至2017年1月)在南极半岛邻近海域采集的海水颗粒物样品,研究POC的空间分布特征及其影响因素。结果表明,斯科舍海0—200 m的POC浓度范围为7.44—193.52μg·L~(-1),平均浓度为(48.84±35.09)μg·L~(-1);南斯科舍海岭0—200 m的POC浓度范围为9.13—62.17μg·L~(-1),平均浓度为(29.76±14.12)μg·L~(-1);鲍威尔海盆0—200 m的POC浓度范围为5.87—270.72μg·L~(-1),平均浓度为(48.57±38.92)μg·L~(-1)。表层POC高值出现在斯科舍海区和鲍威尔海盆区,而低值出现在海岭区,与叶绿素a(Chla)的变化趋势一致,与营养盐的变化趋势相反。垂向分布上,各个区域POC平均浓度随深度的增加而减少,鲍威尔海盆和斯科舍海POC最高值都出现在25 m层。分析结果表明光合浮游植物是研究海域POC的主要来源, POC的主要影响因素为温度、水团混合以及海冰环境。斯科舍海与鲍威尔海盆整体非生命POC占比高,可能是由于高磷虾生物量、海冰碎屑以及陆源输入的干扰;南斯科舍海岭整体非生命POC占比低。  相似文献   

Spatiotemporal analysis of COVID-19 risk in Guangdong Province based on population migration     

Ye  Yuyao  Wang  Changjian  Zhang  Hong’ou  Yang  Ji  Liu  Zhengqian  Wu  Kangmin  Deng  Yingbin 《地理学报(英文版)》2020,30(12):1985-2001

Journal of Geographical Sciences - Population migration, especially population inflow from epidemic areas, is a key source of the risk related to the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) epidemic....  相似文献   

A hybrid integrated deep learning model for the prediction of citywide spatio-temporal flow volumes     

Yibin Ren  Huanfa Chen  Tao Cheng  Yang Zhang  Ge Chen 《International journal of geographical information science》2020,34(4):802-823

ABSTRACT

The spatio-temporal residual network (ST-ResNet) leverages the power of deep learning (DL) for predicting the volume of citywide spatio-temporal flows. However, this model, neglects the dynamic dependency of the input flows in the temporal dimension, which affects what spatio-temporal features may be captured in the result. This study introduces a long short-term memory (LSTM) neural network into the ST-ResNet to form a hybrid integrated-DL model to predict the volumes of citywide spatio-temporal flows (called HIDLST). The new model can dynamically learn the temporal dependency among flows via the feedback connection in the LSTM to improve accurate captures of spatio-temporal features in the flows. We test the HIDLST model by predicting the volumes of citywide taxi flows in Beijing, China. We tune the hyperparameters of the HIDLST model to optimize the prediction accuracy. A comparative study shows that the proposed model consistently outperforms ST-ResNet and several other typical DL-based models on prediction accuracy. Furthermore, we discuss the distribution of prediction errors and the contributions of the different spatio-temporal patterns.  相似文献   

Detecting regional dominant movement patterns in trajectory data with a convolutional neural network     

Can Yang  Győző Gidófalvi 《International journal of geographical information science》2020,34(5):996-1021

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Mineral Potential Mapping Using a Conjugate Gradient Logistic Regression Model     

Lin  Nan  Chen  Yongliang  Lu  Laijun 《Natural Resources Research》2020,29(1):173-188

Mineral potential prediction is a process of establishing a statistical model that describes the relationship between evidence variables and mineral occurrences. In this study, evidence variables were constructed from geological, remote sensing, and geochemical data collected from the Lalingzaohuo district, Qinghai Province, China. Based on these evidence variables, a conjugate gradient logistic regression (CG-LR) model was established to predict exploration targets in the study area. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) and prediction–area (P-A) curves were used to evaluate the effectiveness of the CG-LR model in mineral potential mapping. The difference between the vertical and horizontal coordinates of each point on the ROC curve was used to determine the optimal threshold for classifying the exploration targets. The optimal threshold corresponds to the point on the ROC curve where the difference between the vertical coordinate and the horizontal coordinate is the largest. In exploration target prediction in the study area, the CG algorithm was used to optimize iteratively the LR coefficients, and the prediction effectiveness was tested for different epochs. With increasing iterations, the prediction performance of the model becomes increasingly better. After 60 iterations, the LR model becomes stable and has the best performance in exploration target prediction. At this point, the exploration targets predicted by the CG-LR model occupy 14.39% of the study area and contain 93% of the known mineral deposits. The exploration targets predicted by the model are consistent with the metallogenic geological characteristics of the study area. Therefore, the CG-LR model can effectively integrate geological, remote sensing, and geochemical data for the study area to predict targets for mineral exploration.

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Inferring trophic variation for Antarctic krill(Euphausia superba) in the Antarctic Peninsula from the austral fall to early winter using stable isotope analysis     

ZHU Guoping  ZHANG Haiting  SONG Qi  YANG Yang  WANG Shaoqin  YANG Qingyuan 《海洋学报(英文版)》2018,(6)

The Antarctic krill(Euphausia superba) is a key species in the Southern Ocean ecosystem and an important link in the food web of the Antarctic ecosystem. The trophic information for this species during the transition from the austral fall to the winter is important to understand its poorly known overwintering mechanisms. However, the few studies on the topic differ in their results, in terms of both spatial and temporal variables. We investigated the size dependence and monthly and regional variation in δ~(13) C and δ~(15) N values of adult krill in the Antarctic Peninsula, in the austral fall(April to May) and the early winter(June). We aimed to examine the trophic variations of krill occurred during this period, and the relationship between krill and their feeding environment in the Antarctic marine ecosystem. The following results were obtained:(1) no significant relationship was observed between size and the δ13 C value of krill, but the δ15 N value of krill presented a remarkable association with size;(2)the δ13 C values of krill increased during the austral fall, but no remarkable variation existed at the onset of winter,and the δ15 N values were not significant different during this period;(3) mean δ15 N values of krill differed significantly between the Bransfield Strait and the South Shetland Islands. Our data imply that adult krill present size-, season-, and region-dependent trophic variation during the transition from austral fall to early winter in the Antarctic Peninsula.  相似文献   

西南煤系地层山区采动型崩滑灾害研究关键问题     

李军  褚宏亮  李滨  贺凯  高杨 《中国岩溶》2020,39(4):453-466

文章在分析采矿型崩滑灾害发育特征的基础上，得出西南煤系地层山区地下采动型崩滑灾害常发生在层状碳酸盐岩与碎屑岩地层组成的褶皱翼部和核部的陡崖带上，与地形地貌、地层结构与地下采矿工程活动等因素关系密切，并指出薄矿层开采诱发大型山体崩滑灾害的具体过程:①采空后覆岩顶板塌落—覆岩顶板离层，采空区上覆岩层内部及层间自下而上应力传递；②地下水运移通道形成，并加快更大范围岩体结构破坏及扩展，加速了岩体结构面的松动与破坏；③上覆岩层不均匀沉降导致坡脚压裂，山体大型岩体结构面逐渐拉剪或压剪变形扩展，最终山体发生累积损伤与大规模崩滑灾害。此外，传统经验公式的计算方法对此类采矿型崩滑灾害已不适用，建议开展西南煤系地层山区地质结构与地下采动诱发崩滑灾害的相互作用关系、薄矿层采空区上部山体累积断裂损伤—岩体松动、裂隙扩展-岩溶管道流、裂隙流变化的链式响应机制、地下采动型崩滑灾害评价方法等关键科学问题的研究，以推动采矿型地质灾害防灾减灾工作的发展。   相似文献   

基于斩波轮技术的K波段接收机噪声校准研究          下载免费PDF全文

王凯  王洋  陈卯蒸  段雪峰  闫浩  马军  陈晨雨  曹亮 《天文学报》2020,61(1):1

接收机是射电天文中用于探测微弱射电信号的重要接收设备.接收机的强度校准就是将接收机对射电源的响应转换为天文意义上的流量密度.常规方法就是使用经典的冷热负载法,将接收机自身的强度响应转换为一个等效的温度值,之后再据此对射电源做进一步标定.通过搭建基于斩波轮技术的K波段接收机强度校准平台,使用斩波轮法测试K波段常温接收机的噪声温度,并与传统冷热负载法的测试结果进行比对.结果显示,在晴好天气条件下,斩波轮法在30°、90°仰角下噪声温度的最大测试误差为7.5%和8.4%,可以很好地应用于实际噪声温度测试中;但在5°仰角测试中,由于过低仰角引入了地面噪声,使得斩波轮法的测试误差上升至20%–30%之间而无法使用.希望在此基础上进一步开展K波段天空亮温度的理论计算与实测,从而完善斩波轮技术的应用,使之可以满足在不同气象条件下的噪声校准测试需求.  相似文献   

Rising grain prices in response to phased climatic change during 1736–1850 in the North China Plain     

Wen  Yanjun  Fang  Xiuqi  Liu  Yang  Li  Yikai 《中国科学:地球科学(英文版)》2019,62(11):1832-1844

Grain price volatility during historical periods is regarded as an important indicator of the impact of climate change on economic system, as well as a key link to adjust food security and social stability. The present study used the wheat prices in Baoding Prefecture, China, during 1736–1850 to explore connections between climatic transition and grain price anomalies in the North China Plain. The main findings were as follows:(1) The grain price change showed an apparent correspondence with climatic transition. The period 1781–1820 was a transition phase, with more extremes and decreased precipitations when the climate shifted from a warm phase to a cold one. Corresponding with the climatic transition, the grain price during 1781–1820 was characterized by that the mean of the original grain price series was significantly higher(lower) than the previous(later)phase, and the variance and anomaly amplitude of the detrended grain price series was the highest during 1736–1850.(2) The correspondence between grain price extremes and drought events occurred in phases. Five grain price extremes occurred following drought events during 1781–1810, while extreme droughts were the direct cause of the grain price spike during 1811–1820.(3) Social stability affected by climate change also played an important role in the grain price spike between 1811 and 1820. Paralleling the pathway of "precipitation-grain production-grain price", climate change could have an impact on grain price via the pathway of "precipitation-grain production-grain price-famine-uprising-grain price", as shown during the Tianli Uprising in 1813. These findings could contribute to an improved understanding of the interaction between climate change and human society during the historical period.  相似文献